★ Highest Probability
7718 Hold/Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim 7718–7720, hold it as support, and show responsive buying.
- Target
- 7739.50
- Invalidation
- Acceptance back below 7718.
Wednesday 19 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/19 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bearish Below 7718
Failed Support / Pullback
Key levels
7739.50Resistance · ⭐ Previous ATH
7718.75–7720Resistance · ⭐ Immediate Reclaim
7718.75–7739.50Support · ⭐ Key Reclaim Zone
7632–7646.30Support · ⭐ 20 DMA / Demand
7579.68Support · 50 DMA
7542.75–7563.50Support
Context
ES sold off yesterday and is now trading below the 7718.75–7739.50 support zone, which was the previous ATH area. Price is attempting to reclaim 7718–7720, but has not been able to hold above it. That makes this the key decision point today. Reclaim and hold 7718 → 7739.50. Fail 7718 → 7650 area, with the 20 DMA at 7646.30 as the next major support. If that area fails, the next meaningful support is the 50 DMA at 7579.68.
Second Opportunity
7718 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Break below 7718 followed by a failed retest from underneath.
- Target
- 7650 → 7646.30
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7720.
Only If
7632–7646.30 Support Long
- Trigger
- Deeper selloff into 7632–7646.30, followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7718 → 7739.50
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7632.
Avoid
- Chasing longs underneath 7718.
- Shorting directly into 7632–7646 demand.
- Assuming the previous ATH automatically becomes support again without a reclaim.
- Getting overly focused on the 50 DMA unless the 20 DMA/demand fails first.
Focus · if → then
- 7718 is the decision point.
- Hold/reclaim 7718 → 7739.50
- Fail 7718 → 7650 → 20 DMA
- 20 DMA fails → 7579.68 / 50 DMA becomes the next major reference
- The market is telling us whether yesterday's breakdown was a pullback or the start of a deeper rotation. Let 7718 prove i
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7718. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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