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Thursday 13 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)

8/13 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral Inside Range → Bullish Above 7800 Tight Consolidation

Key levels

7820Resistance · ⭐ ATH
7800Resistance · ⭐ Range High / Breakout Level
7739.50Support · ⭐ P-ATH / Key Support
7718.75Support · ⭐ Major Demand / Bearish Trigger
7650Support · ⭐ Downside Target

Context

ES remains trapped in the same 7718.75–7800 range we've been watching all week. P-ATH at 7739.50 continues to act as an important level keeping the market higher, while 7800 continues to cap the upside. The message today is simple: wait for ES to break outside the range. Above 7800, the path opens toward the 7820 ATH. Below 7718.75, selling pressure can accelerate quickly toward 7650.

★ Highest Probability

7800 Break & Retest Long

Trigger
Clean break above 7800, followed by a successful retest and hold.
Target
7820 ATH
Invalidation
Failed reclaim back below 7800.; Best opportunity today: Let ES prove the breakout, then look for the retest rather than chasing the initial move.

Second Opportunity

7739.50 Support Hold Long

Trigger
Pullback into 7739.50 with responsive buying and confirmation that buyers are defending P-ATH.
Target
7800
Invalidation
Acceptance below 7718.75.

Only If

7718.75 Failure Short

Trigger
Clean break below 7718.75 followed by a failed retest as resistance.
Target
7650
Invalidation
Reclaim above 7718.75.

Avoid

  • Trading the middle of the 7718.75–7800 range.
  • Forcing trades before the range breaks.
  • Chasing the first breakout candle without a retest.
  • Shorting while 7739.50 continues to hold.
  • Assuming the breakout direction before price confirms it.

Focus · if → then

  • Above 7800 → look for retest long → 7820 ATH.
  • 7739.50 holds → buyers remain in control.
  • Below 7718.75 → selling pressure increases → 7650.
  • Inside the range → stay patient.

Today's reminder

Same range, same game. Don't trade the noise in the middle. Let ES break, retest, and prove the direction.

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 7820. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

8/127800 Break & Hold Long8/117800 Break & Hold Long8/107780–7786 Hold Long8/77724 Failure Short