★ Highest Probability
7794–7800 Pullback Long
- Trigger
- Retest of 7794–7800 holds with responsive buying.
- Target
- 7818–7820 → 7838.50
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7794.
Friday 14 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/14 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7800
Higher-Low Continuation
Key levels
7838.50Resistance · ⭐ PDH
7818–7820Support · ⭐ Higher-Low Zone
7794–7800Support · ⭐ Primary Pullback Support
7739.50Support · ⭐ Major Structural Support
ATH / Price Discovery AboveResistance
Context
ES continues to hold the prior ATH at 7739.50 as support. Yesterday's reclaim and hold of 7794–7800 created the next leg higher. Today, 7800 is the key pullback level. Above that, buyers are trying to establish 7818–7820 as the next higher low and reclaim last week's Wednesday high. If 7818–7820 holds, the next objective is PDH at 7838.50.
Second Opportunity
7818–7820 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback holds 7818–7820 and buyers reclaim.
- Target
- 7838.50 → ATH
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7818.
Only If
7794 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7794 followed by a failed retest.
- Target
- 7739.50
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7794.
Avoid
- Chasing directly into 7838.50/ATH.
- Shorting while 7794–7800 continues to hold.
- Forcing trades in the space between 7800 and 7818 without confirmation.
Focus · if → then
- 7800 holds → look for 7818–7820 and then 7838.50.
- 7818–7820 holds → higher low remains intact and buyers can continue higher.
- 7794 fails → downside opens back toward 7739.50
- .
Today's reminder
7800 is the level. Respect the higher low, and let ES prove the next move.
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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