★ Highest Probability
7718 Hold Long
- Trigger
- 7718 holds with responsive buying and price reclaims toward 7739.50.
- Target
- 7739.50 → 7764.50
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7718.
Thursday 20 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/20 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7739.50
Consolidation at Prior ATH
Key levels
7794–7800Resistance
7764.58Resistance
7739.50Resistance · ⭐ Previous ATH
7718Support · ⭐ Key Support
7648.75–7632Support
7583.51Support · 50 DMA
Context
ES is holding just above 7718, but buyers haven't generated much follow-through. The key remains the same: 7718 is support; 7739.50 is the reclaim. Hold 7718 → buyers can retest 7739.50 → 7764.50. Lose 7718 → downside opens toward 7648.75–7632, with the 50 DMA at 7583.51 below.
Second Opportunity
7739.50 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Clean reclaim and hold above the previous ATH.
- Target
- 7764.50 → 7794–7800
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7739.50.
Only If
7718 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Break below 7718 and failed retest.
- Target
- 7648.75 → 7632
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7718.
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into 7739.50.
- Shorting the first test of 7718.
- Trading the middle of 7718–7739.50 without confirmation.
Focus · if → then
- 7718 holds → 7739.50.
- 7739.50 reclaims → 7764.50.
- 7718 fails → 7648.75–7632.
- Today's reminder: We're sitting on support beneath major resistance. Let one of those levels prove itself before committing.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7718 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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