★ Highest Probability
7718.75 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Break below 7718.75 followed by a failed retest from underneath.
- Target
- 7650 → 7638.69
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7718.75.
Tuesday 18 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/18 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bearish Below 7718
Failed Breakout / Pullback
Key levels
7800Resistance · ⭐ Failed Breakout / Major Supply
7718.75Support · ⭐ Key Pivot
7650Support · ⭐ Previous ATH / Pullback Demand
7638.69Support · ⭐ 20 DMA
7632Support · ⭐ Deeper Support
Context
ES failed to hold the 7800 breakout, leaving trapped buyers above that level. Price is now back near 7718.75, with a brief pierce already occurring. This is the key decision point. Hold 7718 and reclaim 7800 → bullish. Lose 7718 and confirm the retest → downside opens toward 7650 and the 20 DMA at 7638.69. The cleaner opportunity may be the deeper pullback into 7650–7638, where the previous ATH and 20 DMA converge.
Second Opportunity
7650–7638.69 Pullback Long
- Trigger
- Price reaches 7650–7638.69, finds responsive buying, and reclaims the zone.
- Target
- 7718.75 → 7800
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7632.
Only If
7800 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance back above 7800 followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- New ATH / continuation higher.
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7800.
Avoid
- Chasing shorts directly into 7650–7638 demand.
- Assuming the brief pierce below 7718 automatically means breakdown.
- Buying aggressively while price remains trapped below 7800.
- Fighting the downside if 7718 breaks and retests cleanly.
Focus · if → then
- 7718 holds → watch for a reclaim of 7800.
- 7718 fails → downside opens toward 7650 → 7638.69.
- 7650–7638 holds → look for the higher-quality long.
- 7800 reclaims → bullish structure returns.
Today's reminder
7718 is the decision point. If it fails, let the market fill the move toward 7650 before looking for the long.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7718.75. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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