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Friday 20 February 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

2/20 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 6,900 Heavy 6,900–6,930 supply → 6,850 breakdown watch

Key levels

6,930Resistance · 20/50DMA major supply
6,900Resistance · Reclaim pivot
6,863Support · / 6,850 — Immediate breakdown pivot
6,814Support · / 6,800 — January low / psych level
6,770Support · December low

Context

Supply remains heavy between 6,900–6,930. Markets continue to probe this zone and fail to break through. The real pivot today is lower: 👉 6,863 / 6,850 Yesterday ES broke 6,863, but NQ did not break its PDL — that divergence mattered. Watch that relationship again today. Clean continuation only happens if 6,850 breaks and sticks. Above 20/50DMA (inside 6,900–6,930) is the only place bulls regain control. This is a structure day.

★ A+ Setup

6,850 Breakdown (Primary)

Zone
Acceptance below 6,850; 6,900–6,930
Trigger
30-min close below; Failed reclaim; NQ confirms weakness; Push into supply; Stall / upper wicks; No acceptance above
Target
6,814 → 6,800 → Extension: 6,770 → 6,863 → 6,850 → Expansion higher (range extension) → But until that happens, rallies are suspect.
Invalidation
Clean reclaim of 6,863; Below 6,850, this should flow.; 🔴 Major Supply Rejection; Clean 30-min close above 6,930; Heavy supply until proven otherwise.; 🟢 Bullish Shift Scenario; Condition: Acceptance above 6,930 (20/50DMA reclaim)

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
  • 2️⃣ NQ confirms structure
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at key levels
  • No mid-range trades
  • No shorting directly into 6,800

Mindset

  • 6,850 decides continuation.
  • 6,900–6,930 decides rejection.
  • If breakdown confirms → press.
  • If supply rejects → fade.
  • If 20/50DMA reclaims → reassess bias.
  • Location > emotion.
  • Wait for confirmation, then execute.
  • SPY (1HR)
  • Rejections between 686/689 are clear as day... rejecting the 20/50DMA as well. Need to see the follow through to the downside begin for a nice setup.
  • Want to see us under 682. Will have to be cautious of the 100DMA below at 680. Below that, into the 676.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

reached 6850 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/196,863 Failure Short (Primary)2/186,863 Failure Short (Primary)2/176,870 Rejection2/13Retest Rejection Short (Primary)