Thursday 19 February 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

2/19 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 6,900 6,920 rejection → PDL pivot → Structure test

Key levels

6,921–6,931Resistance · 20/50DMA major supply

6,900Resistance · Reclaim level

6,868Resistance · / 6,864.50 — Immediate pivot

6,863Support · PDL / 100DMA pivot

6,814Support · / 6,800 — January low / psych

6,770Support · / 6,750 — Breakdown extension

6,680Support · Lower support pocket

Context

Yesterday played clean — reclaim of 6,900 into heavy supply at 6,920–6,930, and that zone did its job. We are now turning last week’s Mon/Wed lows into rejections. If that sticks, bearish structure remains intact. Today’s key pivot: 👉 6,863 (PDL area / 100DMA zone) Below it → continuation pressure Above 6,900 → bounce attempt I am cautious with longs unless we reclaim structure. The real long only exists north of the 20/50DMA (6,920–6,931).

★ A+ Setup

6,863 Failure Short (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,863; Acceptance above 6,900; 6,920–6,931
Trigger: 30-min close below; Failed reclaim of 100DMA; Lower high into resistance; Strong push and hold; Buyers defend pullback; Push into zone; Stall / upper wicks; No strong acceptance above
Target: 6,814 → 6,800 → 6,920 → 6,931 → 6,900 → 6,863
Invalidation: Clean reclaim of 6,900; Loss of 6,900 after reclaim; Clean 30-min close above 6,931; This remains heavy supply until proven otherwise.

Failure below PDL opens rotation back to January lows.; This is continuation structure.; 🟢 Tactical Long — 6,900 Reclaim; Scalp long only unless 20/50DMA clears.; True shift requires acceptance above 6,931.; 🔴 Major Supply Rejection

Confirmation

1️⃣ 30-min directional close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at levels
No mid-range trades
No chasing breakdowns into 6,800

Mindset

6,863 decides downside.
6,900 decides bounce.
6,920 decides structure shift.
If PDL fails → press.
If 6,900 reclaims → scalp.
If 20/50DMA clears → bias shifts.
React to the level. Not the narrative.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

reached 6863 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/186,863 Failure Short (Primary)2/176,870 Rejection 2/13Retest Rejection Short (Primary)2/12Pullback Long (Preferred)