Monday 23 February 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

2/23 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral inside range → Breakout required Channel compression → Patience until expansion

Key levels

6,925–6,931Resistance · 20/50DMA major supply

6,847Support · Range support pivot

6,814Support · / 6,800 — Major demand zone

6,770Support · December low

Context

Not much new — we’ve been trading inside the same channel since last Wednesday. This is compression. And compression punishes impatience. Last week’s mistake was giving back profits in lackluster action. That cannot repeat. Today’s pivots are clear: 👉 6,931 (20/50DMA) 👉 6,847 (range support) Above 6,931 → structure cleans up toward 7,000 Below 6,847 → rotation back into 6,800 demand This is a wait-for-break session.

★ A+ Setup

6,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance above 6,931
Trigger: Strong push and hold; 30-min close above; Buyers defend pullbacks
Target: 6,960 → 7,000
Invalidation: Loss of 6,931 after reclaim; Above the 20/50DMA, price action should clean up.

A+ Setup

6,847 Breakdown Short

Zone: Acceptance below 6,847
Trigger: 30-min close below; Failed reclaim; Lower high
Target: 6,814 → 6,800 → Extension: 6,770
Invalidation: Reclaim of 6,863–6,870 zone; Below 6,847 opens the door to demand.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at the edges of the range
No mid-range trades
No forcing action inside the channel

Mindset

6,931 breaks → momentum long.
6,847 breaks → continuation short.
Inside the range → do nothing.
Patience pays.
Impatience gives it back.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

reached 6931 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/206,850 Breakdown (Primary)2/196,863 Failure Short (Primary)2/186,863 Failure Short (Primary)2/176,870 Rejection