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Friday 13 February 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

2/13 Trade Plan

Bias · Cautious → Prefer fade of strength Post-7,000 rejection → Retest failure → CPI volatility

Key levels

6,921–6,931Resistance · Ideal retest rejection area
6,900Resistance · Reclaim pivot
6,868Resistance · / 6,863 — First failure zone
6,814Support · / 6,800 — Major hold zone / January low
6,770Support · / 6,750 — Breakdown extension
6,680Support · Lower support pocket

Context

7,000 finally did its job — buyers pushed for multiple sessions and ran out of fuel. We got the rejection. Today we have CPI pre-market, so expect expansion and fake moves early. Key principle: 👉 Do NOT press shorts into lows 👉 Let resistance get tested 👉 Trade reactions, not headlines The cleanest idea remains a retest and rejection of 6,920–6,931. We never got a proper failure there yesterday — unfinished business. Below 6,800 sits major support (January low area). That’s not a great place to initiate fresh shorts unless momentum is extreme. This is a structure day, not a prediction day.

★ A+ Setup

Retest Rejection Short (Primary)

Zone
6,920–6,931; 6,868–6,900; Reclaim above 6,900
Trigger
Push into level; Stall / upper wicks; Delta fades or turns negative; No strong acceptance above; Failed breakout; Lower high on retest; VWAP overhead; 100DMA rejection; Strong push and hold; Acceptance above 6,900; Delta positive; Holding above 20/50DMA
Target
6,900 → 6,868 → Extension: 6,814 / 6,800 → 6,814 → 6,800 → 6,920 → 6,931
Invalidation
Clean acceptance above 6,931; Strong reclaim and hold above 6,900; Loss of 6,900 after reclaim

This is the cleanest location on the board.; We want a retest and fail — not chasing breakdowns.; 🔴 Secondary Short — 6,868 / 6,900 Failure; If 6,920 never gets touched, this becomes your actionable zone.; 🟢 Bullish Reclaim Setup; Back above the 20/50DMA strengthens upside continuation.; If bulls reclaim structure, don’t fight it.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms move
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
  • 4️⃣ Reaction at level — not mid-range
  • No chasing CPI spikes
  • No initiating fresh shorts directly into 6,800

Mindset

  • You don’t need to catch the CPI move.
  • You need to catch the reaction to it.
  • If we retest supply → execute.
  • If we chop mid-range → do less.
  • If we flush into 6,800 → be cautious pressing.
  • Today is location > emotion.
  • Protect capital first.
  • SPY (4HR & 1HR)
  • This 100DMA here at 678.50/680 will be a big spot... cautious shorting into it. I'd much prefer a pop & fade at the 686 or higher at the 690. Look for fails back at the 20/50DMA, that's a high R/R short.
  • If we fail 678.50, we are going lower into 676 & January lows which would also be lows of the year.
  • We have Dec lows at 671 as well.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 6900. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/12Pullback Long (Preferred)2/11Pullback Long (Primary)2/10Higher-Low Continuation Long (Primary)2/9Neutral → Reactive at extremes