Tuesday 17 February 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

2/17 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 6,870 Back inside range → Below key MAs → Decision at 6,870

Key levels

6,931–6,935Resistance · 20/50DMA supply

6,900Resistance · Reclaim pivot

6,868Resistance · / 6,863 — First failure zone

6,814Support · / 6,800 — Major hold zone / January low

6,770Support · / 6,750 — Breakdown extension

6,680Support · Lower support pocket

6,618Support · (200DMA) — Major HTF support

Context

We’re back inside Friday’s range (6,808–6,897) after continued weakness from the 7,000 rejection. Price is: Below 100DMA (6,880) Well below 20/50DMA (6,931–6,935) That keeps higher timeframe pressure down. Below us: 6,814 (Jan low) 6,771 (Dec low) 6,618 (200DMA) Today’s pivot is clear: 👉 6,870–6,880 Above it = bounce attempt Below it = trend pressure intact This is a reaction day, not a prediction day.

★ A+ Setup

6,870 Rejection

Zone: 6,870–6,880; 6,814
Trigger: Push into 100DMA; Stall / upper wicks; No 30-min acceptance above; Flush + strong reaction; Selling fails to continue; Acceptance below 6,800
Target: 6,814 → 6,771 → 6,850 → 6,870 → 6,771 → 6,618 → Momentum increases below 6,800.
Invalidation: 30-min close above 6,880; Rallies are suspect until 6,931 is reclaimed.; 🟢 Tactical Bounce — 6,814 Hold; Acceptance below 6,800; Do not press shorts into this level.; 🔴 Breakdown Continuation

Confirmation

1️⃣ 30-min directional close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at levels
No mid-range trades

Mindset

6,870 decides direction.
6,814 decides bounce vs continuation.
One clean level. One clean execution.
SPY (1HR)
Price is testing the 100DMA (679.05) and already pushed through to 677.52. This area is a reaction zone — be cautious pressing fresh shorts directly into it. Clean fade levels: 686, 690, Fails at 20/50DMA (high R/R zone)
If we lose 678.50 cleanly, continuation lower opens. Below that: 673.95 , 671 (December low)

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 6880. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

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Earlier plans

2/13Retest Rejection Short (Primary)2/12Pullback Long (Preferred)2/11Pullback Long (Primary)2/10Higher-Low Continuation Long (Primary)