★ Highest Probability
7714–7724 Lower-High Short
- Trigger
- Rejection from 7714–7724 followed by a clean break/retest lower.
- Target
- 7650 → 7632
- Invalidation
- Reclaim and acceptance above 7724.
Monday 31 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/31 Trade Plan
Bias · Bearish Below 7724
Lower-High Risk / Range
Key levels
7755–7764Resistance · Supply
7724.25Resistance · Key Reclaim
7714–7724Resistance · ⭐ Lower-High / Rejection Zone
7650–7632Support · ⭐ Major Demand
7570Support · Next Support / 50 DMA
Context
ES is still below the key 7724.25 level. Until that is reclaimed, I don't see a strong reason to chase upside. This is a potential lower-high rejection area, so let price prove strength before getting bullish. Above 7724, the 20 DMA becomes the next confirmation. Below, the path opens back toward 7650–7632.
Second Opportunity
7724 + 20 DMA Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim 7724 and regain the 20 DMA, then hold the level as support.
- Target
- 7755 → 7764
- Invalidation
- Failure back below 7724.
Only If
7632 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7632 followed by a failed retest.
- Target
- 7570 / 50 DMA
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7632.
Avoid
- Longs below 7724 without a clear reclaim.
- Shorting directly into 7650–7632 demand.
- Forcing trades in the middle of the range.
Focus · if → then
- 7714–7724 rejects → 7650 → 7632.
- 7724 + 20 DMA reclaim → 7755 → 7764.
- 7632 fails → 7570.
- Below 7724 = respect the lower-high risk.
Today's reminder
Don't predict the reversal. Let ES prove strength above 7724—or respect the rejection.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7714. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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