★ Highest Probability
7720 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim 7720–7725 and hold it as support.
- Target
- 7760
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7720.
Monday 24 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/24 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral Until Break
Tight Range / NTZ
Key levels
7760Resistance · Upside Target
7720–7725Resistance · ⭐ Key Reclaim
7650–7630Support · ⭐ Major Demand
7570Support · Next Support
Context
ES remains trapped between 7650–7630 demand and 7720–7725 supply, with the 20 DMA sitting near the center of the range. Lower-high rejections are developing near 7720, while buyers continue defending the lower portion. Until one side breaks, expect chop and limited continuation.
Second Opportunity
7650–7630 Demand Hold
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7650–7630 holds with responsive buying, followed by a reclaim.
- Target
- 7720 → 7760
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7630.
Only If
7630 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7630 followed by a failed retest.
- Target
- 7570
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7630.
Avoid
- Trading aggressively inside 7630–7720.
- Shorting directly into 7650–7630 demand.
- Assuming a hold at 7650 is bullish without the 7720 reclaim.
Focus · if → then
- 7650–7630 holds → wait for the 7720 reclaim.
- 7720 reclaims → 7760.
- 7630 fails → 7570.
- Everything between 7630–7720 = NTZ.
Today's reminder
We're waiting for one side to break. Don't get chopped trying to predict which one.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7720. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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