★ Highest Probability
7780–7786 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7780–7786 holds and buyers reclaim.
- Target
- 7820 ATH
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7780.
Monday 10 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/10 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7718
Breakout / Higher-Low Continuation
Key levels
7820Resistance · ⭐ ATH
7780–7786Support · ⭐ Immediate Support
7740–7718Support · ⭐ Major Higher-Low Zone
Context
ES has successfully turned the 7740–7718 previous ATH into a higher-low zone. That remains the key structural level. Today, buyers are reclaiming the 7780–7786 Tuesday highs. If that area holds as support, ES has a clean path back toward the 7820 ATH. If 7780 fails, expect rotation back through Friday's range. 7718.50 remains the line in the sand. Below it, the structure changes and downside opens toward 7650.
Second Opportunity
7740–7718 Higher-Low Long
- Trigger
- Deeper pullback into 7740–7718 followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7780–7786 → 7820
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7718.
Only If
7718 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Clean break and failed retest below 7718.
- Target
- 7650
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7718.
Avoid
- Chasing directly into 7820 ATH.
- Fighting the trend while 7718 holds.
- Forcing trades inside Friday's range without a clear reaction.
Focus · if → then
- 7780–7786 holds → look for 7820.
- Deeper pullback into 7740–7718 → look for the higher-low long.
- 7718 fails → downside opens toward 7650.
Today's reminder
Respect the higher low. Hold the structure, and ES has a path to ATH..
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7780. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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