★ Highest Probability
7850 Break & Retest Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim and hold above 7850.75 (range high / prior day high zone)
- Target
- 7850.75 → 7875
- Invalidation
- Rejection back below 7847.25 after the break
Tuesday 22 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/22 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7810.5/overnight low
Range high test → Expansion
Key levels
7850.75Resistance · 30-day range high
7847.25Resistance · prior day high
7843.75Resistance · overnight high
7833.25Support · prior day close (wicked to 7828.25 at 07:00, reclaimed by 07:15)
7810.5Support · overnight low
7758.25Support · prior day low / 30M swing low
7744.84Support · 20DMA
Context
ESZ6 pushed to 7843.75 overnight on strong net buying (delta +5373) before settling at 7835.75, right under the 30-day range ceiling at 7850.75 and prior day's high of 7847.25. Prior session ran 7758.25-7847.25 and closed 7833.25, so today opens just above that close, inside the overnight range (7810.5-7843.75). All moving averages sit well below price (20DMA 7744.84, 50DMA 7716.31), confirming the broader trend is up — today's question is whether the range top gives way or holds. Footprint in the 45 minutes into 07:30 confirms both sides of that structure: a test of 7843.75 was rejected (delta -154), price wicked to 7828.25 — briefly through the 7833.25 pivot — then reclaimed on strong buying (delta +379, +336 the next two bars), pushing back to 7839-7840 by 07:30. Sellers couldn't hold either level.
Second Opportunity
7833 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Hold above 7833.25 prior-day-close pivot after a rejection at the 7847-7850.75 ceiling
- Target
- 7843.75 → 7850.75
- Invalidation
- Loss of 7833.25
Only If
7810 Breakdown
- Trigger
- Only if 7810.5 overnight low breaks and fails to reclaim
- Target
- 7758.25 → 7744.84
- Invalidation
- Reclaim of 7810.5
Avoid
- Don't chase inside 7833-7843.75 — that's mid-range, not a level
- Don't short the uptrend on the first touch of 7850.75 — wait for an actual rejection print
- 7843.75 has already been tested and rejected once (06:45 ET, delta -154) — one rejection isn't confirmation, don't treat it as a done deal on the next approach
- No target above 7875 — there's no overhead structure yet if 7850.75 gives way cleanly
Focus · if → then
- 7850.75 holds as resistance → pullback to 7833.25 → 7810.5
- 7850.75 breaks and holds → 7875 → open air, no structure above
- 7810.5 lost → 7758.25 → 7744.84 (20DMA)
Today's reminder
Price is pressing a 30-day ceiling on strong overnight buying — let 7850.75 prove direction before sizing up.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7850 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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