★ Highest Probability
7822 Demand Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback holds 7822 with responsive buying and a 15m close back above it.
- Target
- 7840 → 7848 → 7851
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7819.
Wednesday 23 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/23 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7822
Uptrend / Compression at the highs
Key levels
7850.75Resistance · 30-day high
7848.50Resistance · PDH
7840Resistance · supply zone
7819–7822Support · ONL + PDL
7810.50Support · 1H swing low
7758Support · Monday's low
Context
Price is 80 points above the 20DMA and pressed under a supply zone that has rejected six separate times between 7839.50 and 7848.50, with the 30-day high at 7850.75 capping it. Yesterday's range was only 26 points and the overnight range 24, and overnight bought +1,628 delta while holding above yesterday's low — that is compression under the highs, not distribution. At 7826.50 price sits in the middle of the band, the one place with nothing to lean on. The day turns on 7822 holding or 7848.50 giving way.
Second Opportunity
7848.50 Break & Hold Long
- Trigger
- Break above 7848.50 and hold it on a 15m close.
- Target
- 7851 → 7875
- Invalidation
- Lose 7840 after reclaim.
Only If
7810 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7810 + failed retest.
- Target
- 7790 → 7758
- Invalidation
- Reclaim 7810.
Avoid
- Chasing the middle of 7822–7840.
- Buying the first touch of 7848 without a hold above it.
- Shorting a compression in an uptrend.
- Chasing into open air above 7851 — there is no structure up there.
Focus · if → then
- 7822 holds → 7840 → 7848 → 7851
- 7848 breaks → 7851 → 7875
- 7810 fails → 7790 → 7758
Today's reminder
Compression under the highs in an uptrend usually resolves upward. Buy the hold at 7822, not the middle at 7826.
How it played out
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