★ Highest Probability
7710 + 20DMA Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim and hold above 7710
- Target
- 7740
- Invalidation
- Lose 7710 after reclaim
Wednesday 16 September 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
9/16 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish above 7713
Range / Decision Zone
Key levels
7709Resistance
7697Resistance · → 7700
7687.5–7691Resistance
7666Support
7659Support
7654–7647Support
Context
ES is pushing higher after holding the ONL 7659. Immediate resistance sits at 7687.5–7691, with 7697 above and the 20DMA at 7709. Major support is 50DMA 7666, with deeper demand at 7654–7647. FOMC at 2:00 PM can completely change the structure, so don't force the pre-event move.
Second Opportunity
7637–7647 Demand Hold
- Trigger
- Hold demand and reclaim back above 7666
- Target
- 7687 → 7710
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7637
Only If
7637 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7637 + failed retest
- Target
- 7600 → 100DMA
- Invalidation
- Reclaim 7637
Focus · if → then
- 7710 reclaims → 7740
- 7637 holds → 7666 → 7687 → 7710
- 7637 fails → 7600 → 100DMA
Today's reminder
Trade the levels. Don't trade the FOMC. Wait for confirmation, take the obvious move, and protect the account.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7710 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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