★ Highest Probability
7762 Pullback Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7762 followed by responsive buying.
- Target
- 7800 → 7826
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7762.
Wednesday 5 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/5 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish
Price Discovery
Key levels
7930Resistance · ⭐ 100% Extension
7894Resistance · ⭐ Fibonacci Extension
7866Resistance · ⭐ Fibonacci Extension
7846Resistance · ⭐ Fibonacci Extension
7826Resistance · ⭐ Fibonacci Extension
7800Resistance · ⭐ Overnight High / ATH
7740–7718Support · ⭐ Primary Pullback Zone (Previous ATH Retest)
Context
Yesterday's breakout confirmed a shift into price discovery. ES rallied from 7629 to 7786 with almost no meaningful pullbacks, then extended overnight to a new all-time high at 7800. The trend remains firmly bullish. The objective today isn't to call a top—it's to identify where buyers step back in. Until proven otherwise, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Second Opportunity
7800 Hold & Continue
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7800.
- Target
- 7826 → 7846 → 7866.
Only If
7718 Failure
- Trigger
- Acceptance below 7718.
- Target
- 7650 → 7630.
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7718.
Avoid
- Chasing extended breakout candles.
- Calling a top simply because price is at all-time highs.
- Forcing shorts against the strongest trend in weeks.
- Buying random pullbacks that lack confirmation.
Focus · if → then
- Hold 7740–7718 → buyers remain in control.
- Hold above 7800 → opens the path toward 7826 → 7846 → 7866.
- Lose 7718 → opens the door for a deeper pullback toward 7650–7630.
- Until 7718 breaks, pullbacks are buying opportunities—not reasons to fight the trend.
Today's reminder
Respect the trend. Let the pullback come to you, then trade the reaction—not the prediction.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7762. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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