★ Highest Probability
7600 Acceptance Long
- Trigger
- Strong acceptance above 7600, followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7630
- Invalidation
- Failure back below 7600.
Monday 3 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/3 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7590 / Cautious After Extension
Trend Day Up
Key levels
7630Resistance · ⭐ Major Supply
7600Resistance · ⭐ Psychological Resistance
7590–7585Support · ⭐ First Intraday Support
7560Support · ⭐ 50 DMA / Prior Breakout
7542Support · ⭐ Overnight Low
Context
ES has exploded higher since the 8:30 open, rallying nearly 60 points from the 7542 overnight low to test 7600 by 10:30 AM. Price is now trading well above both the 20 DMA (7520.16) and the 50 DMA (7559.86), confirming strong institutional buying. The original 7552–7563 reclaim played out almost immediately. At this point, the edge is not chasing new longs into resistance but waiting for either a pullback into support or a clean acceptance above 7600.
Second Opportunity
Pullback Into 7590–7585
- Trigger
- Controlled pullback followed by responsive buying and delta confirmation.
- Target
- 7600 → 7630
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7585.
Only If
7600 Exhaustion Fade
- Trigger
- Multiple failed attempts above 7600 with aggressive seller absorption and negative delta.
- Target
- 7590 → 7580
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7600.; This is a scalp only, as the broader trend remains bullish.
Avoid
- Chasing green candles after a 50+ point rally.
- Fighting the trend with oversized shorts.
- Assuming the first rejection from 7600 is a major top.
- Buying directly into 7630 supply without confirmation.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through key levels.
- Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into major support or resistance.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.
triggered, then reached 7630. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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