★ Highest Probability
7468–7479 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Price rallies into 7468–7479 and fails to gain acceptance.
- Target
- 7419 → 7414
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7479.
Tuesday 28 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/28 Trade Plan
Bias · Bearish Until Key Levels Are Reclaimed
Breakdown Into Major Support
Key levels
7566Resistance · ⭐ 50 DMA
7533Resistance · ⭐ 20 DMA
7524Resistance · ⭐ Overnight High
7468–7479Resistance · ⭐ First Resistance
7419–7414Support · ⭐ Overnight Low / Immediate Demand
7339Support · ⭐ 100 DMA
7330–7354Support · ⭐ Major Demand
7259Support · ⭐ 200 DMA
7238–7253Support · ⭐ Final Major Support
Context
Yesterday's selloff changed the structure. ES dropped from 7515 to 7414, breaking below both the 20 DMA (7533) and 50 DMA (7566). Overnight, buyers defended the 7419–7414 support zone, but price remains well beneath overhead resistance. Until the market reclaims 7468–7479 and eventually the 20 DMA, rallies should be treated as countertrend bounces inside a bearish structure.
Second Opportunity
7414–7419 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Buyers defend 7414–7419 with responsive buying and a reclaim back above support.
- Target
- 7468 → 7479
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7414.
Only If
7533 (20 DMA) Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Price reclaims the 20 DMA (7533) with acceptance after clearing 7468–7479.
- Target
- 7566 (50 DMA)
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7533.
Avoid
- Chasing longs into 7468–7479 resistance.
- Assuming the trend has reversed while price remains below the 20 DMA.
- Shorting the first touch of 7414–7419 support.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through key levels.
- Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into major support or resistance.
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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