★ Prime Setup
7513–7517 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7513–7517 followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7585 → 7600
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7513.
Wednesday 1 July 2026 · /ES
7/1 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7513
Trend Continuation Above Key Support
Key levels
7585–7600Resistance · ⭐ Major Supply
7513–7517Support · ⭐ Primary Demand
7490–7500Support · ⭐ 50 DMA
7472Support · ⭐ FOMC Low / Line in the Sand
Context
ES continues to build higher lows after reclaiming the 20 DMA, with buyers repeatedly defending the 7513–7517 breakout zone. That area has now held multiple times and becomes today's primary support. As long as price remains above 7472 (FOMC Low), the path of least resistance remains higher. The next objective is a test of the 7585–7600 supply zone, where sellers are expected to become more active.
A+ Setup
7490–7500 Flush Reversal
- Trigger
- Sweep into the 50 DMA followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7517 → 7585
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7490.; Why it matters: This is the next major demand zone if the primary support fails and offers the highest-quality pullback opportunity.
B-Tier Setup
7585–7600 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Price rallies into major supply and fails to gain acceptance.
- Target
- 7517
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7600.
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into 7585–7600 supply.
- Shorting above the 7472 FOMC Low.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Assuming resistance breaks on the first test.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction
- Delta confirms participation through key levels
- Acceptance above reclaimed levels
- Break-and-retest structure holds at 7513–7517 or 7490–7500
- No first-touch chasing into 7585–7600 liquidity
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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