★ Prime Setup
7409–7421 Rejection Short
- Trigger
- Rally into 7409–7421 followed by rejection and failed acceptance.
- Target
- 7354 → 7330
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7421.
Friday 26 June 2026 · /ES
6/26 Trade Plan
Bias · Bearish Below 7421 / Bullish on Reclaim
Downtrend Within Larger Range
Key levels
7480–7500Resistance · ⭐ 50 DMA / Major Resistance
7409–7421Resistance · ⭐ Key Supply
7330–7354Support · ⭐ Major Demand
7300Support
7270Support
Context
ES continues to respect the short-term downtrend, with break-and-retest rejections keeping sellers in control. Overnight, price rejected the 7409–7421 zone once again, making it today's key pivot. As long as we're below 7421, rallies remain opportunities to sell into resistance. A reclaim of that zone would shift the market back into balance and open the door for a move toward the 50 DMA.
A+ Setup
7421 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance back above 7421 with buyers holding the retest.
- Target
- 7480 → 7500 (50 DMA)
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7409.
B-Tier Setup
7330–7354 Reversal Long
- Trigger
- Flush into major demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- Rotation back toward 7409.
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7330.
Avoid
- Chasing shorts directly into 7330–7354 demand.
- Buying before 7421 is reclaimed.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Fighting the prevailing trend until structure changes.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction
- Delta confirms participation
- Acceptance above reclaimed levels or below failed supply
- Break-and-retest structure holds
- No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones
- Let sellers prove continuation before pressing shorts into demand
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
Get tomorrow's plan before the open.
Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.
No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.