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Monday 9 March 2026 · /ES · Daily & 30m

3/9 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish (Primary) / Cautious Neutral (Secondary) Defending the 6,540–6,584 floor while the Daily 200 SMA acts as a ceiling.

Key levels

6,756Resistance · / 6,771 — September High / December Low; the gateway to a full recovery.
6,715Resistance · / 6,727 — Last Tuesday’s lows / Broken floor.
6,683Resistance · Daily 200 SMA; the major overhead pivot.
6,584Support · Overnight Low (ONL); the first line of defense.
6,540Support · Critical October Low; the absolute must-hold for long-term structure.

Context

The overnight session delivered a massive structural shift, flushing below the 6,600 psychological floor to tap 6,584. This area is significant, marking the structural lows from late 2025. The move is fueled by an oil shock (WTI near $120) and geopolitical headlines, creating a high-volatility environment where prior supports are now acting as supply. Currently, we are pinned below the Daily 200 SMA (6,683). This is the primary hurdle for any recovery. While the higher timeframe posture is heavy, we are reaching deep value zones at 6,540 (October Lows). The market is currently searching for foundational evidence. We must maintain a posture over 6,682 to even begin discussing upside. Until then, every bounce is a "sell the rip" candidate until the 6,715–6,727 broken floor is reclaimed.

★ A+ Setup

Lower High Rejection

Zone
6,700 – 6,718 (Daily 200 SMA Cluster)
Trigger
Failed breakout of 6,700 or a "look above and fail" at 6,718.; 30m candle close back below the 200 SMA after an initial test.; Confirmation: Heavy selling absorption or aggressive offer hitting at the pivot.
Target
6,650 → 6,600
Invalidation
Daily close above 6,720.; Why: Highest probability setup aligning with dominant bearish momentum using the 200 SMA as a risk-defined pivot.

A+ Setup

200 SMA Rejection (Primary)

Zone
6,680 – 6,685
Trigger
Initial test of the Daily 200 SMA (6,683) followed by a sharp rejection.; Failure to hold a 30m candle close above 6,685.; Confirmation: Delta turns negative; price stays below VWAP.
Target
6,620 → 6,585 (ONL)
Invalidation
30m candle close above 6,705.

A+ Setup

Value Reclaim

Zone
6,540 – 6,550
Trigger
A flush below 6,584 that traps sellers into the 6,540 level.; Quick reclaim of 6,584 on the 30m timeframe.; Confirmation: Aggressive "buying tail" on the 30m wick.
Target
6,630 → 6,680 (200 SMA test)
Invalidation
New low of day below 6,530.; Why: High-reward "washout" play. If 6,540 holds, the bounce back to the 200 SMA is a high-probability mean reversion.

A+ Setup

Structural Reclaim (Secondary/Long-term)

Zone
6,771+
Trigger
Sustained trade above 6,727 (Foundational Evidence).; Acceptance and hold above 6,771 (December Low).; Shift in news cycle (Oil cooling or geopolitical de-escalation).
Target
6,800 → 6,850
Invalidation
Loss of 6,720.; Why: This is the "Unlikely but Impactful" scenario. Holding 6,771 would signal that the current flush was a massive bear trap, but it requires a full 100+ point recovery to prove valid.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at key levels
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing breakdowns into 6,540

Mindset

  • The Bear (Primary): Short rejection at 6,683 (200 SMA).
  • The Flush (Value): Long the 6,540 "Washout" trap.
  • The Reclaim (Momentum): Long above 6,727 towards 6,771.
  • SPY (30 Min)
  • Very clean rejection of the 100 DMA and 683. Looking for downside continuation today if we can fail below 674. Very major level 674 on the SPY. Would not want to be too aggressive short into it, but if we can fail below 674, we should get downside continuation quite aggressively. Cautious of the bounce off PDL and cautious of the channel between yesterday's price action.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/6Bearish Continuation3/5The "Higher Low" Bounce3/4Higher Low Retest3/36,802–6,811 Rejection Short