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Thursday 5 March 2026 · /ES · 30Min

3/5 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral (Pivot Battle at 6850) Daily 20 rejection; testing structural support at 6840.

Key levels

6930Resistance · Daily 50 SMA / Major Trend Breakout.
6893/6900 — Daily 20 EMA / Overnight High. Heavy Supply.Resistance
6873Resistance · Gap Fill / Minor Pivot.
6840/6850 — Overnight Low / Tuesday High. Primary Pivot.Support
6791/6800 — Wednesday Base / Psychological Support.Support

Context

Overnight Action: /ES found heavy supply at the Daily 20 EMA (6893), topping at 6890.50 before a steady decline. Current State: Trading below the 6873 gap fill. We are currently pursuing the 6860.75 area. Pivot: 6840.50 (ONL). This is the must-hold level for bulls to maintain the "higher low" structure from Wednesday. Downside Risk: A clean break of 6840 opens the door to 6791, which was a major high-volume node on Wednesday.

★ A+ Setup

The "Higher Low" Bounce

Zone
6840 – 6847
Trigger
Washout of the Overnight Low (6840.50) followed by a 5-min close back above 6850.
Target
6873 (Gap Fill) → 6893 (Daily 20)
Invalidation
15-min close below 6835.; Logic: Using the ONL as a springboard to trap early shorts and re-test the daily moving average.

A+ Setup

The "EMA Fade" or "Pivot Flush"

Zone
6893 Rejection OR 6840 Breakdown
Trigger
Fade: Failure to clear 6893 with a 5-min lower high.; Flush: 15-min candle close below 6840 + bearish backtest.
Target
6800, 6791.
Invalidation
6855 (; Logic: Rejection at the Daily 20 confirms the downtrend remains the path of least resistance.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ HTF Close: Wait for the 10:00 AM candle to settle the "Opening Drive."
  • 2️⃣ Reaction: Look for "speed" at 6840. Slow grinding is a no-trade.
  • 3️⃣ VWAP: Long > VWAP | Short < VWAP.
  • 4️⃣ Location: Avoid entries between 6860 and 6880 (No Man's Land).
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing
  • No emotional entries

Mindset

  • 6,850–6,857 decides direction.
  • Below = fade rallies (Daily 20 is capping the upside).
  • Above = shift long (target 6900 re-test).
  • Trade the rejection at 6893 or the reclaim of 6850.
  • Avoid the chop in between.
  • SPY (30 Min)
  • Looking for a hold over 682 and the daily 100 SMA.
  • If we can hold above the daily 20 and 686, we could see a squeeze towards that 690 high. Not too much room there, but a potential scalp entry point. The true breakout is over 690.
  • Below 682 and the daily 100, we would likely see a move lower towards 678.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 6835. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/4Higher Low Retest3/36,802–6,811 Rejection Short3/2Failed Bounce / Lower High (Primary)2/276,931 Pop & Fade (Primary)