Tuesday 3 March 2026 · /ES · 1HR

3/3 Trade Plan

Bias · Fade resistance unless reclaimed Rally into supply → Lower high opportunity

Key levels

6,841–6,847Resistance · Friday lower day / heavy resistance

6,802–6,811Resistance · Monday LOD / supply pivot

6,750Support · September high / key pivot

6,727Support · Breakdown level

6,682Support · Major support / near 200DMA

Context

Plan today is simple: Look for a push higher into Monday LOD (6,802–6,811). That zone is the pivot. If price rallies into it and stalls, a lower high rejection sets up a clean short back toward 6,750 (September high). If 6,750 breaks, momentum likely expands toward: 6,727 6,682 Daily 200DMA below that However… If we reclaim and hold above 6,802, the short thesis is invalid and the focus shifts higher toward 6,841–6,847.

★ A+ Setup

6,802–6,811 Rejection Short

Zone: 6,802–6,811
Trigger: Push into level; Clear rejection on 15m; Lower high forms; No acceptance above; 15m close above; Pullback holds support; Buyers defend retest
Target: 6,750 → 6,727 (if momentum builds) → 6802 → 6811 → 6841
Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6,811; This is the cleanest setup on the board.; 🟢 A+ Setup Hold + Acceptance above 6791; Condition: Strong move and hold above 6791; Loss of 6,802; This flips structure intraday.; 🔻 Breakdown Scenario; If we lose 6,750 cleanly:; Expect acceleration toward 6,727 → 6,682; That opens the path toward the daily 200DMA.; Do not short directly into 6,750 without confirmation — wait for acceptance below.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,832–6,847
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade edges of the range only
Expect volatility
No mid-range trades
No chasing into major support

Mindset

6,802–6,811 decides direction.
Below = fade rallies.
Above = shift long.
Trade the rejection.
Trade the reclaim.
Avoid the chop in between.
SPY (15 Min)
You have some very important demand between 671 and 674. I would first look for a move higher towards Monday LOD or Friday LOD for a lower high rejection today. If we reclaim Friday LOD and the 100 DMA, then we can look for longs once again just like yesterday.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 6811. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

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Earlier plans

3/2Failed Bounce / Lower High (Primary)2/276,931 Pop & Fade (Primary)2/266,931 Pullback Long (Primary)2/256,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)