Friday 27 February 2026 · /ES · 1HR

2/27 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 6,931 → Trap in play Failed breakout → Overhead supply → PDL decision

Key levels

6,980Resistance · Upper resistance

6,925–6,931Resistance · 20DMA / supply high

6,870Support · PDL pivot

6,847Support · Prior lows

6,828Support · Secondary support

6,800Support · Major demand

.Resistance

Context

We now have a clear trap above 6,931. Price failed to hold above prior channel highs and left late breakout buyers underwater above that level. That creates potential fuel for downside continuation. Rejections of the 20DMA are becoming clear. Today’s pivot: 👉 6,870 (PDL) Below it → downside rotation likely Above it → potential range day back toward 6,925–6,931 supply This is a structure test day.

★ A+ Setup

6,931 Pop & Fade (Primary)

Zone: 6,925–6,931; Acceptance below 6,870
Trigger: Push into supply; Clear rejection / upper wicks; No 1HR acceptance above; 1HR close below; Failed reclaim; Lower high
Target: 6,870 → 6,847 → 6,847 → 6,828 → 6,980 → Condition 2: Flush into 6,800 with strong reaction → → Tactical bounce opportunity → Without one of those, upside is suspect.
Invalidation: Clean 1HR close above 6,931; Overhead supply remains heavy until reclaimed.; 🔴 Breakdown Setup — PDL Failure; Reclaim of 6,870; Below PDL opens room for a 20–30 point rotation.; Back off pressing shorts as we approach 6,800 demand.; 🟢 Bullish Shift Scenario; Condition 1: Clean reclaim of 6,931

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
2️⃣ Rejection quality at 6,931
3️⃣ VWAP alignment
4️⃣ Trade at edges, not mid-range
If PDL holds → expect chop
No forcing trades inside yesterday’s range

Mindset

6,931 defines the trap.
6,870 defines momentum.
Pop into supply → fade.
Break PDL → press.
Approach 6,800 → protect profits.
Let trapped positioning work — but only after confirmation.
SPY (1 HR)
Right back within the channel of death... makes me uninterested once again to take action today.
Only interest would be fades off 690 & the DMA's or a break & retest rejection below PDL. Target would be the 100DMA demand below.
We would need to reclaim 690 for any longs.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 6931. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/266,931 Pullback Long (Primary)2/256,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/246,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/236,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)