2/9 Trade Plan

Original plan

⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/9/26 2/9/20262 min read Ticker: /ES Timeframe: 30 Min Bias: Neutral → Reactive at extremes Theme: Reclaim worked → Now earn continuation or rotate back 🧭 Context Friday’s reclaim above the 100DMA was clean and paid exactly as expected. No drama, no guessing — just structure doing its job. That move grinded straight into 6,969–6,981, which is not some random number. This is real supply, and price is already telling us it won’t be easy. We’re now back inside the wide ES channel, which means: • Continuation must be earned • Failures rotate fast • Chasing gets punished Your edge here is patience. 📊 Key Levels 🟩 Support / Demand 6,920 — First higher-low attempt / balance check 6,886 — Mid-channel support 6,868–6,863 — 100DMA (key downside magnet) 6,800 — Range low 6,750 — Breakdown risk level 🟥 Resistance / Supply 6,969–6,981 — Major rejection zone 7,030 — Only if 6,981 clears cleanly 🟩 Support / Demand 6,920 — First higher-low attempt / balance check 6,886 — Mid-channel support 6,868–6,863 — 100DMA (key downside magnet) 6,800 — Range low 6,750 — Breakdown risk level 🟥 Resistance / Supply 6,969–6,981 — Major rejection zone 7,030 — Only if 6,981 clears cleanly 🔴 Secondary Setup — 100DMA Fade (Range Trade) Zone: 6,868–6,870 Trigger: Push into 100DMA Immediate rejection Lower high forms Delta divergence at highs Targets: 6,814 6,800 Stop: Acceptance above 6,870 Notes: This is a profit-taker’s short, not an aggression trade. If rejection is weak or sloppy → pass. 🟢 Secondary Setup — Higher-Low Confirmation Long (Conditional) Zone: 6,920 → 6,886 Trigger: Pullback holds Higher low structure forms Delta stabilizes and turns positive No immediate rejection from VWAP Targets: 6,969–6,981 Extension only if strong: 7,030 Stop: Acceptance below 6,886 Notes: You are not front-running this. Let the higher low form first — then act. 🟡 Range Warning If price chops between 6,920 and 6,969: • Reduce size • Faster targets • Or stand down Mid-range trades = emotional tax. 🧩 RAIN Confirmation 1️⃣ Directional candles (no overlap garbage) 2️⃣ Delta confirms price 3️⃣ VWAP aligned with the trade 4️⃣ Reaction at the level — not in between ⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM 🚫 No forcing trades just because Friday worked. 🧠 Mindset Notes Friday was execution. Today is discipline. You already proved the read. Now prove you can wait. The market will either: • Build higher lows and continue • Or fail and rotate back to the 100DMA You don’t need to predict which. You just need to react correctly. SPY (30Min) A pretty trapped move within 684 demand & 694 supply... a clean 10 point range that continues to trade on the SPY. I would personally wait for a pullback to 684 or a hold above 694 for longs within this channel. Below 684, you can look for downside towards 682. Above 694 towards 700.