★ Highest Probability
7533 Reclaim Long (20 DMA)
- Trigger
- Acceptance above the 20 DMA (7533) followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7545 (ONH) → 7579 (50 DMA)
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below the 20 DMA.
Wednesday 22 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/22 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7527
Rotation Below Key Moving Averages
Key levels
7579Resistance · ⭐ 50 DMA / Major Resistance
7545Resistance · ⭐ Overnight High (ONH)
7533Resistance · ⭐ 20 DMA / Decision Level
7505Support · ⭐ Overnight Low (ONL)
7500Support · Psychological Support
Below ONL = Opens Door for Further WeaknessSupport
Context
Not much has changed from yesterday. ES remains below the 20 DMA (7532.99) after rejecting the 50 DMA (7579.25), keeping short-term pressure on the market. Overnight traded both extremes (ONH: 7545.00 | ONL: 7504.50) and is now rotating near the middle of the range. The key remains the 20 DMA. A reclaim shifts momentum back to the bulls. Continued rejection keeps the focus on a move back toward overnight lows and lower support.
Second Opportunity
7505 Hold Long (ONL)
- Trigger
- Pullback into the Overnight Low followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7533 (20 DMA) → 7545 (ONH)
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7505.
Only If
7505 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Acceptance below the Overnight Low with sellers maintaining control.
- Target
- 7500 → Range extension lower
- Invalidation
- Reclaim back above 7505.
Avoid
- Chasing longs below the 20 DMA (7533).
- Shorting the first test of 7505 without confirmation.
- Trading in the middle of the overnight range (7505–7533) without confirmation.
- Assuming the trend has changed until the 20 DMA is reclaimed.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.
- Acceptance holds above 7533 for continuation.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- Watch for confluence between the 20 DMA, ONH/ONL, and liquidity reaction levels before committing to a trade.
How it played out
Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.
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