★ Highest Probability
7598 Break & Hold Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7598 followed by buyers holding the breakout.
- Target
- 7613 → 7632 → 7649
- Invalidation
- Acceptance back below 7598.
Thursday 16 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/16 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7585
Range Compression Beneath ATH
Key levels
7636–7648Resistance · (ATH Supply)
7613Resistance · ⭐ Major Supply
7585–7598Support · ⭐ Primary Support
7575Support · (50 DMA)
7533Support · (20 DMA)
7499Support
7472Support · (FOMC Low)
Context
ES continues to hold above the 7585–7598 breakout zone. As long as buyers defend this area, the bullish structure remains intact. 7613 is supply. Respect it. A reclaim opens the door toward the 7636–7648 ATH zone. Lose 7585, and expect rotation back into the moving averages where chop is likely.
Second Opportunity
7580 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7580 (overnight double bottom / 50 DMA) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- Rotation back toward 7598 → 7613
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7580.
Only If
7535 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7535) with sellers maintaining control.
- Target
- 7499 → 7472 (FOMC Low)
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7535.
Avoid
- Chasing longs into 7613–7632 supply.
- Shorting the first test of 7580 support.
- Trading the middle of the overnight range without confirmation.
- Assuming a breakout before acceptance is confirmed.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.
- Acceptance holds above 7598 for continuation.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into 7613–7632 liquidity.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.
triggered, then reached 7613. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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