★ Prime Setup
7404 Hold & Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7404 followed by responsive buying
- Target
- 7450 → 7475
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7386
Friday 12 June 2026 · /ES
6/12 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7404
Recovery Rally / 20DMA Test
Key levels
7540Resistance
7475Resistance · (20DMA) ⭐
7450Resistance · ONH
7404Support · ⭐
7386Support
7354–7335Support · ⭐
7270Support · (50DMA)
Context
ES held overnight support at 7372 twice and pushed aggressively higher into 7450. Buyers continue defending higher lows after reclaiming the 7400 area. Today's focus is simple: can 7404 turn into support? If buyers defend that zone, the path opens toward the 20DMA and potentially 7470+. If 7404 fails, look for rotation back into the stronger demand zone at 7354–7335.
A-Tier Setup
7335 Demand Long
- Trigger
- Flush into 7354–7335 demand followed by reclaim
- Target
- 7404 → 7450
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7335
B-Tier Setup
7475 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Failure at the 20DMA after a push into resistance
- Target
- 7450 → 7404
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7475
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into the 20DMA
- Shorting directly into 7404 support
- Trading the middle of the range
- Forcing trades before confirmation
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned above 7404
- Delta confirms continuation through 7404
- Acceptance above reclaimed 7404 structure
- Break-and-retest holds at 7404
- No first-touch chasing into 7475 liquidity
- Acceptance above 7475 opens the path toward 7540
- SPY 5MIN
- Pullback long at the 736/738 is something to watch, retest of Wednesday highs. Below 736.62, we could see more downside into the 731.50/733. That would be a clean retest of the Thursday early morning high & Friday lows. I would only short on a fail below 731.58. If we reclaim the 20DMA at 745.34, we go to 750.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7386. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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