Tuesday 21 April 2026 · /ES · 15M

4/21 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish → Bearish only below 7,120 Trend continuation → buy pullbacks, not breakouts

Key levels

7,185Resistance · ATH

7,160–7,150Support · primary hold (A+ level)

7,120Support · deeper pullback

Context

We’ve reclaimed 7,150–7,160 and are holding above it, pushing back toward 7,185 (ATH). That’s the shift: Yesterday = range Today = trend continuation attempt As long as we hold 7,150, buyers are in control and dips are opportunities. Below 7,120, we rotate—but that’s still pullback, not reversal unless structure really breaks. Key idea: Trend is up → position on pullbacks Not waiting for breakout

★ A+ Setup

Pullback Hold Long (Primary Trade)

Zone: 7,160–7,150
Trigger: Pullback into level; Holds clean + higher low
Target: 7,185 → → extension (trail runners)
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7,130

👉 This is the trade; 👉 This is where trend pays; 👉 If this doesn’t set up → you wait

B+ Setup

Deeper Pullback Long

Zone: 7,120; Below 7,120
Trigger: Flush lower; Strong reaction; Break and fail to reclaim; Weak bounce
Target: 7,160 → 7,185 → 7,077
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7,090; Reclaim above 7,150

👉 Backup plan; 👉 Still trend-aligned; 🔴 S Setup — Failed Structure (Only Short Worth Taking); 👉 This is NOT a primary trade; 👉 This is “if market breaks” only; 👉 No anticipation

Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,150
2️⃣ Clean reaction (no chop entries)
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade extremes only
No breakout chasing at 7,185
No shorting strength
No trading middle

Mindset

You are in a trend → act like it
Your job = wait for the dip
If it doesn’t come → you don’t trade
One trade is enough
SPY (15MIN)
If we can maintain above 709 today, we see the ATH test. Above ATH, continuation is possible. If we fail below 709, we could see the Friday LOD test again. Strong holds at 705/706 all day yesterday.

Best window

10–11:30AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 7130. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

4/20Breakout Above Range 4/17Pullback Hold Long (Primary)4/16ATH Breakout & Hold 4/15Rejection at Highs