★ A+ Setup
200DMA Support Long
- Zone
- 6,693–6,715
- Trigger
- Pullback holds the 200DMA; Buyers defend the level; 30min higher low forms
- Target
- 6,760 → 6,777
- Invalidation
- 30min acceptance below 6,693
Thursday 12 March 2026 · /ES · 30m
3/12 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Pivot around the 200DMA
Overnight move completed the expected rejection → now trading around 200DMA support
Key levels
6,913Resistance · 50DMA
6,894Resistance · 100DMA
6,850Resistance · 20DMA
6,763–6,777Resistance · Lower-high rejection zone
6,715–6,693Support · Demand zone / 200DMA (6,695)
6,596Support · March 8th low / next major support
Context
Ironically, the trade I had been waiting for all week finally happened overnight. Price rejected 6,760–6,766 and rotated straight down into 6,693, which was exactly the move I expected from a lower-high failure. Of course it happened at 6pm when I wasn’t even looking, which is probably for the best because that’s the kind of move that creates FOMO if you’re staring at the screen. The good news is the analysis was right. The rejection level worked perfectly and price moved directly into the 200DMA zone, which was the target area for the pullback. Now the market is sitting right on top of that pivot: 200DMA: 6,695 Overnight low: ~6,705 Overnight bounce: 6,760 Current rotation: back toward 6,730 So the key question today is simple: Does the 200DMA hold, or do we break it? If the 6,693–6,715 demand holds, the market can stabilize and attempt another rotation back toward 6,777 → 6,850. If the 200DMA breaks, the next meaningful liquidity pocket sits down near 6,596, which was the March 8th low.
A+ Setup
Reclaim Continuation
- Zone
- Above 6,777
- Trigger
- 30min close above 6,777; Pullback holds as support
- Target
- 6,820 → 6,850 (20DMA)
- Invalidation
- Loss of 6,760
A+ Setup
200DMA Breakdown
- Zone
- Below 6,693
- Trigger
- 30min close below 200DMA; Failed reclaim
- Target
- 6,650 → 6,596 (March 8 low)
- Invalidation
- Reclaim of 6,715
Confirmation
- 1️⃣ Directional 30min close
- 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA (6,695)
- 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
- 4️⃣ Trade structure extremes only
- No mid-range trades
- No chasing moves
- SPY (30 Min)
- Potential lower highs between 674.76/676.11. Need to see us reclaim those Fri highs from last week. If we can, back towards the 20DMA is possible.
- Lower high here drives us back down into the 670 demand.
Best window
10–11:00 AM
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 6693. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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