Friday 6 February 2026 · /ES · 15 Min

2/6 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Binary at 100DMA Major defense → Decision day → Reaction over prediction

Key levels

6,970Resistance · Stretch supply (only if momentum builds)

6,920Resistance · Thursday HOD / upside magnet

6,868–6,863Resistance · 100DMA (decision zone)

6,814–6,801Support · Reclaimed balance / intraday demand

6,756–6,771Support · Major structural low (must-hold)

Context

Big picture first: We just saw a massive defense at the Dec lows / Sept highs (6,756–6,771) — that level did exactly what it was supposed to do. Add to that the reclaim of Thursday morning lows at 6,800, and you’ve got real buyers finally stepping in. Now comes the test. Today’s entire session revolves around 6,868–6,870 (100DMA). This is the line between: • Stabilization → rotation higher • Or rejection → range continuation No rushing trades today. Let the market tip its hand.

★ A+ Setup

100DMA Reclaim Long (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance above 6,870; 6,868–6,870
Trigger: Clean reclaim of 100DMA; Holds above on retest; Delta turns positive; No immediate rejection wicks; Push into 100DMA; Immediate rejection; Lower high forms; Delta divergence at highs
Target: 6,920 → Extension: 6,970 (only if trend strength is obvious) → 6,814 → 6,800
Invalidation: Acceptance back below 6,863; Acceptance above 6,870

This is the best long on the board.; If the market wants higher, this is where it proves it.; 🔴 Secondary Setup — 100DMA Fade (Range Trade); This is a profit-taker’s short, not an aggression trade.; If rejection is weak or sloppy → pass.; 🟡 Range Scenario (Very Possible); If price:; • Rejects 6,870; • Holds above 6,800; Then expect chop between 6,800–6,870.; That’s:; 👉 Smaller size; 👉 Faster exits; 👉 Or no trades at all; Flat is a position.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no overlap junk)
2️⃣ Delta confirms intent
3️⃣ VWAP aligns with trade direction
4️⃣ Acceptance or rejection at the actual levels
No mid-range boredom trades.

Mindset

This is a decision day, not a volume day.
Your job is not to guess next week — it’s to listen today.
Let the 100DMA speak.
You just translate.
SPY (30Min)
Strong hold at the December lows on SPY... very important spot & a good reaction for now.
We need to see SPY reclaim the Wednesday lows at 681.76 today. If we can hold above that, we should trade into the Tuesday lows at 684.
A reclaim of 684 would be a nice spot for longs towards the 50DMA & Thur HOD at 687.54. Above that, we are right back into the 692 & 20DMA.
If we fail to reclaim the Tues LOD at 684, we could see failures that keep us within the range of Thursdays action.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6870. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/5Breakdown Below 100DMA (Primary)2/4Pop & Fade Short (Primary)2/3Pullback Continuation Long (Primary)2/2Pullback Long (Primary)