Thursday 29 January 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

1/29 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bullish continuation only if accepted above ATH Post-FOMC digestion → Hold structure → React at extremes

Key levels

7,036.25Resistance · ATH / decision point

6,988–6,994Support · Immediate pullback demand

6,969–6,964Support · 20DMA / A+ higher-low zone

6,925–6,923Support · Structural failure level (bulls lose control)

Context

Post-FOMC price action has been constructive. ES successfully retested Tuesday lows / Monday highs and held — that’s a bullish structural checkmark. However, continuation requires proof. We are sitting just below ATH, and this is where ES loves to stall, rotate, or punish impatience. Primary idea: 👉 Hold higher lows 👉 Buy pullbacks, not breakouts 👉 Only trust continuation above 7,036 acceptance SPX 7,000 psych is a massive gamma level — expect pinning, sharp reactions, or failed pushes. Market personality: • Grind higher, then pause • Shallow pullbacks into demand • Breakouts need acceptance, not wicks Trade levels. Not hope.

★ A+ Setup

Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,988–6,994; 6,969–6,964
Trigger: Controlled pullback (no impulse selling); Buyers defend prior highs; Delta stabilizes or turns positive; VWAP holds below price or reclaims quickly; Rejection wicks at demand; Absorption on sell pressure; Delta divergence (price flat, delta improves); VWAP flattens or curls up; Loss of 20DMA; Acceptance below 6,964; Failed reclaim attempts
Target: 7,017 (if applicable intraday) → 7,036.25 (ATH test) → 6,994 → 7,017 → Extension only if strong: 7,036.25 → 6,925–6,923
Invalidation: Acceptance below 6,988; Acceptance below 6,964

This is the cleanest trade if bulls are real. No chasing strength.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Long (Best R/R); This is where institutions reload if the trend is intact.; 🔴 Bearish Scenario — Breakdown (Conditional Only); No hero shorts. This market is still structurally bullish until proven otherwise.; 🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS; 🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.; When you traded less:; ✔ You traded better; ✔ Large accounts grew correctly; ✔ Big R showed up; ✔ Work actually protected you; Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —; it drains you.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption at the level, not mid-range
No chasing ATHs. No impatience trades.

Mindset

ATH environments reward patience, not aggression.
Let others chase — you buy structure or you do nothing.
Baby account stays off until direction is obvious.
You already know this: later trades = cleaner trades.
Calm. Precise. Boring.
That’s how you keep stacking.
SPY (30Min)
Retest of 694 was our target & that was the exact LOD. Perfect levels & thesis yesterday.
Today, if we reclaim the 697 level, I could see SPY attempting the push into ATH again at 699.
Below 694, we get a nice dip towards the 20DMA.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 7017. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/28Pullback Long (Primary)1/27Pullback Long (Primary)1/23Demand Hold Long (Primary)1/22Higher-Low Long (Primary)