Week ahead
12/14 Timo's Week Ahead Plan (ES)
Published Sunday 14 December 2025, before the week opened. Kept exactly as written.
ES Futures Week Ahead Plan
🧠 30,000-Foot Context
We remain in a bullish primary trend. Recent pullback activity is digestive, not distributive. The bigger plan is intact — even if the day-to-day path doesn’t look clean.
Some sessions will feel off-script. That doesn’t invalidate the framework. It just means the market is taking a longer route to the same destination.
🔄 Current Market Behavior
We’re seeing structural weakness at the edges
Tight highs → thin liquidity
Repeated lows → vulnerable stops
That usually resolves with a morning shakeout, not a trend change
Early downside ≠ bearish.
Early downside = setup building.
📊 Key ES Levels (Carry-Forward)
🟩 Support / Demand
6,812 → 6,790 — Primary demand (held all last week)
20 / 50 DMA — Structural support beneath price
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,900 — Key rejection / decision zone
6,950 — Extension / excess area
🎯 RAIN Game Plan
Core idea: Let the break happen. Trade the retest.
Bullish Path
Morning rotation into 6,812–6,790
Hold + acceptance
RAIN long toward 6,900
Continuation only after a clean break + retest
Neutral / No-Trade
Choppy rotation between demand and 6,900
No structure → no edge
Failure
Acceptance below 6,790
Stand down and reassess
🧭 Execution Notes
Don’t chase early strength
Let liquidity get built
Structure first, entries second
No retest = no trade
🧠 Weekly Mental Model
Trend: Up
Path: Messy first
Edge: Patience + RAIN
Week ahead ES plan — focusing on RAIN break & retest structure and patience early.
What this is, and what it is not
A week-ahead map, not a session plan. It has no single trigger, target and invalidation, so it is never scored the way the daily plans are, and it is not counted in the plan archive's numbers. It is kept because the way the thinking changed over the year is worth reading.