★ Prime Setup
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7532–7551 holds with responsive buyers and VWAP reclaim
- Target
- 7569.75 → 7600 → 7613.5
- Invalidation
- 30m acceptance below 7525; Failure to reclaim VWAP after pullback
Friday 22 May 2026 · /ES
5/22 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7469 / Neutral below 7469
Trend / Overnight Expansion
Key levels
7649Resistance · projected extension
7613.5Resistance · projected resistance
7600Resistance · psychological
7569.75Resistance · (overnight high)
7551–7532Support · (overnight pullback support)
7483.75Support · (Wednesday high reclaim)
7475.75Support
7469.5Support · (major pivot)
7370.75–7363.25Support · (major demand)
Context
ES continued higher overnight after reclaiming the prior breakout structure and is now trading firmly above the Wednesday high at 7483.75. Overnight buyers pushed aggressively into the 7560s before pulling back slightly into pre-market consolidation. Current structure remains bullish, but price is now extended from major demand, increasing the odds of rotational pullbacks before continuation. Key intraday focus is whether buyers can maintain acceptance above 7469–7475 after the overnight expansion.
A-Tier Setup
- Trigger
- Acceptance above overnight high (7569.75)
- Target
- 7600 → 7613.5 → 7649
- Invalidation
- Loss of 7555 after breakout; Failed breakout back below overnight high
B-Tier Setup
Exhaustion Fade
- Trigger
- Sharp rejection from 7569–7600 liquidity
- Target
- 7550 → 7532
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7600
B-Tier Setup
Deep Pullback Long
- Trigger
- Flush into 7483.75–7469.5 with responsive buyers
- Target
- 7532 → 7560
- Invalidation
- 30m acceptance below 7460
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into overnight highs
- Shorting strong acceptance above 7569
- Mid-range chop between 7535–7555
- Emotional open trades after overnight expansion
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned
- Delta confirms continuation
- Acceptance above reclaimed highs
- Responsive buyers at pullback zones
- No first-touch chasing into liquidity
- SPY (30 MIN)
- Two spot to look for higher lows today. First one is the 744/743.50 demand, that would be the more aggressive hold. That would be a hold over PDH & some Friday highs from last week. If we fail here, we likely trade back towards the Monday highs at 741/740. This would be the demand I'd like to see hold to remain in a higher low trend. Failing 740, we trade back into PDL at 738. Looks like this 747 supply is going to be the next level to beat.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7532 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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