★ B+ Setup
Reclaim Above 7,420
- Zone
- Above 7,420
- Trigger
- Break and HOLD above Friday LOD; Acceptance back inside Friday’s range
- Target
- 7,475
- Invalidation
- Loss of 7,400
👉 Scalp continuation only; 👉 Expect chop inside Friday range
Monday 18 May 2026 · /ES · 15m
5/18 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish above 7,420 / Bearish below 7,363
Friday range retest → reclaim or rejection
Key levels
7,475Resistance · Friday rejection highs
7,420Resistance · Friday LOD reclaim
7,370–7,363Support · major support
7,320Support · downside target
7,300Support · / 20DMA — deeper support
Context
ES is sitting at an important decision point after Friday’s weakness. The key level today is: Friday LOD at 7,420.25 That level determines whether: ES rotates back into Friday’s range OR sellers maintain control toward lower support Important nuance: Even if ES reclaims 7,420, price may become choppy because: reclaiming Friday LOD puts us BACK inside Friday’s range. That means: continuation may not be clean price could rotate both ways patience matters more than prediction today Below 7,420, downside pressure remains active toward: 7,370–7,363 then potentially 7,320 and eventually 7,300 / 20DMA
A+ Setup
Rejection at 7,420 (Primary)
- Zone
- 7,420
- Trigger
- Retest into resistance; Weak reclaim / rejection
- Target
- 7,370 → 7,363
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7,435
👉 Best trade structure today; 👉 Aligns with current momentum
A+ Setup
Breakdown Below 7,363
- Zone
- Below 7,363
- Trigger
- Loss of support; Failed reclaim
- Target
- 7,320 → 7,300
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7,385
👉 Cleanest momentum move on the board; 👉 Opens larger downside rotation
B Setup
Deep Pullback Reaction Long
- Zone
- 7,320–7,300
- Trigger
- Flush lower into support; Strong reclaim / responsive buyers
- Target
- 7,363 → 7,420
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7,285
👉 Counter-trend setup; 👉 Only if reaction is obvious
Confirmation
- 1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,420 or 7,363
- 2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
- 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
- 4️⃣ No chasing inside Friday range
- No trading middle
- No emotional longs below 7,420
- No forcing trades inside chop
Mindset
- Choppy ranges punish overtrading
- Clean trades come from extremes
- If it’s messy → wait
- One clean trade → done
- SPY (15 MIN)
- If we turn Friday LOD into rejections at 738, the SPY could stay weak here. I would need to see a reclaim of 738 for the bulls to win control. Over 738, we likely just trade within Friday's chop range, don't love the long for much more than a scalp. Right now, we are holding Wednesday lows at 735.47, below that, we trade to the overnight low & possibly the 732 demand.
Best window
10–11:30AM
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7400. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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