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Wednesday 25 March 2026 · /ES · 30m

3/25 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral / Range → Bullish above 6,684 / Bearish below 6,634 Compression → wait for obvious expansion

Key levels

6,888Resistance · / 6,904 — 50DMA / 100DMA (bigger extension, not first target)
6,769Resistance · 20DMA
6,750–6,754Resistance · supply / 200DMA
6,700Resistance · breakout / acceptance trigger
6,680–6,684Resistance · overnight range high
6,640–6,634Support · overnight support / pivot
6,617Support · prior key pivot
6,581–6,562Support · broader range support
6,450Support · failure extension

Context

Overnight, ES pushed 6,605 → 6,680, then pulled back to 6,634, establishing a clear range: Zooming out, price is still digesting the March 23 spike (6,483 → 6,748) and trading inside a broader range under major MAs. Key idea: This is range compression, not trend. Above 6,684 → expansion toward 6,700 → 200D (6,754) Below 6,634 → rotation back through range

★ B+ Setup

Range Low Hold Long

Zone
6,640–6,634
Trigger
Pullback into overnight support; Buyers defend; Higher low forms / no clean acceptance below
Target
6,680 → 6,700
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,617

This is the cleanest long inside the current range. If buyers are still in control, they should keep defending this area.

A+ Setup

Range Breakout

Zone
Above 6,684
Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,684; No immediate rejection; Ideally acceptance into/over 6,700
Target
6,700 → 6,750–6,754 (200DMA)
Invalidation
Loss of 6,660

This is the real continuation setup. But don’t confuse a wick through highs with acceptance. If it’s real, it should stay bid.

A+ Setup

Failed Breakout / Range Rejection

Zone
6,684 → 6,700
Trigger
Push into overnight highs / 6,700; Weak continuation or sharp rejection; Loss of 6,660 / rotation back into range
Target
6,640 → 6,617 → 6,581
Invalidation
Acceptance above 6,705

This is a strong setup because we are still trading under major overhead MAs. Until 6,700 is accepted, strength can still be sold.

A+ Setup

Range Breakdown

Zone
Below 6,634
Trigger
Loss of overnight low; Failed reclaim; Acceptance back below 6,617
Target
6,581 → 6,562 → 6,450
Invalidation
Reclaim above 6,660

If overnight support fails, then the whole “buyers are defending” story starts to crack.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 6,634 or 6,684
  • 2️⃣ Reaction at range extremes only
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned with direction
  • 4️⃣ No trades in the middle of the range
  • No chasing inside 6,650–6,670
  • No trading the middle of the range
  • No breakout longs unless 6,684/6,700 actually hold

Mindset

  • You are not here to trade — you are here to execute one clean opportunity
  • Yesterday proved it → one trade can do everything
  • If it’s not obvious, do nothing — that is winning
  • After your win: you are done. No second chances, no exceptions
  • Kill Switch (Non-Negotiable)
  • Hit your target → CLOSE PLATFORM
  • No “one more trade”
  • No giving it back

Best window

10–11:30AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 6617. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/24Demand Hold Long (Primary)3/23Base Hold Long3/20Pullback Long (Cleaner Entry)3/19Neutral → Range until FOMC